The UGA Spring Game - The Good, the Bad, & very few of the Ugly

When we look at spring games here at TCFR, we don’t say OMGBestTeamEver. We try comment on the players relative to the team and what we have seen over the past year or two. So here we go…

1) #7 - The Big spoon looked like the veteran he should be. Passes were beautiful, especially the touch on the touchdown on the first drive.
2) #14 - Joe Cox played beautifully. All throws in the first half were crisp and on target. God forbid if anything happens to Matthew, but I honestly feel like we would be OK with Joe back there. Ask Colorado.
3) Knowhown is awesome.
4) The hype around Caleb King was nearing mythical proportions. Well, he looked like a star. The game looked like it moved slowly for him, meaning it looked as if he was exerting less effort than everyone else around him. All the more impressive when you consider the next item.
5) The starting O-line for red looked pretty good to me. All spring, we’ve heard how the defensive line was more dominant. I just didn’t see it among the starters. On the second team, however, this was more evident. Many of the 2nd(red) team’s defense were in the backfield a second or two after the snap. The 2nd team O-line seemed to struggle. This makes King’s performance all the more impressive.
6) Michael Moore looked good. Yeah, he had two nice TD grabs. But what I liked was the blocking he threw on the very first play that sprang a simple WR screen for 35 yards instead of the usual 3 to 5 yards.
7) John Knox can hit.
8 ) Asher Allen has been my favorite corner for two years now. I believe he is really ready to break out. He had one nice play and nearly had a pick. The difference between being near the top and the best is making that pick. He is almost there. Plus, I love corners who tackle like champs (bad I know). Allen was mano-e-mano in the open field on the 5 yard line, and brought the wood and sent the running back in the other direction. I expect big things from Allen this year.
9) Logan had a nice throw, but the drop off from Cox to him is pretty severe. He’ll need more time to catch up, but he did look fairly comfortable back there…. a good sign. Keep it up Logan.
10) Holy freakin placekicking!!!! We nailed a 47 and 52 yard field goal. Probably my biggest worry, and this looked AWESOME. I believe we will be a juggernaut if we nail those in the regular season.
11) Logan can run too, even though there was a hold on the backside that sprung him.
12) Our punting was fairly miserable. We have Mimbs, so I hope he’s booming them come September.
13) I was really bummed about not seeing more of our starting receivers, or Tavarres King. I’ve heard good things about him and wanted to see it.
14) Gamble looked pretty fast out there. I hope that continues, as we already have one linebacker down, and there may be a point where he has to step up.
15) A lot of talk around Samuel and Jackson, but there looks to be quite a drop off from King. I know it’s easier to run with the first string O-line, but the difference factor relative to the rest of the team just wasn’t quite there. King was able to make it happen on the 2nd team.
16) Wynn looked good all day.
17) The lower strings were dominated by defense.

All in all I thought we looked OK. I truly believe if we can avoid injuries to O-line and linebacker, we’re going to be fierce. Back into hibernation for a while…..Go Dawgs!!!

The SuperBowl, the BCS, and Playoffs…

In the wake of the Super Bowl, the blogs are more heated about the BCS vs. playoffs than on any other topic out there. A few points:

- At the end of the 2005 season, EVERYONE was singing the BCS praises ( USC vs. Texas ).
- Taking into account the entire season, there is no way the Giants are in the top 4 if they ranked NFL teams.
- There is no way to DEFINITIVELY say that LSU was better than UGA, West Virginia, or USC.

Simply put, there are two systems that determine a champion. Rankings, which are biased but take into account the whole season. And a playoff, which definitely crown a champion by results on the field, but only those results from a subset of the season. One system is not BETTER than the other because they are completely different.

That said, I have a strong preference for the ranking system of college because it better keeps rivalries intact. I hate Florida, and have strong dislike of Tennessee. An eight team playoff would allow Georgia to lose to both of them beat everyone else, slide into the playoffs and win it all. That thought doesn’t sit well with me…period.

SMQ has a definitive article on this topic, and I believe he nails it, with one or two exceptions. First off, his little 6.7% calculation for an eight team playoff is absurd. 120 teams do NOT compete for a title each year. It’s really about 35-40 each year, and that is a VERY generous total. 8 out of 40 is about 20% by my math. That’s WAY too high in my opinion. You WILL get similar outcomes to SuperBowl XLII. Some three loss team like Florida this year who gets hot or something…..LAME if you ask me.

But SMQ’s overall point is well taken….That said, here are my final thoughts…..

1) I currently like the system in college. I believe it has only got it wrong twice (taking Oklahoma both times).
2) We could tweak the system to only allow conference champions in the BCS title game. Big 10, Big East, and Pac-10 would be forced into having a conference title game, smoothing out some of the scheduling differences. That would have eliminated one of the above two controversies.
3) We do currently have a two team playoff system. I guess that’s not enough teams for some people. The system to determine a larger pool would likely be VERY similar to what is in place for the BCS bowls and the two team playoff today.
4) As stated above, I believe an 8 team playoff would utterly suck for the same reasons as this years NFL playoffs.
5) Therefore, I favor tweaking the current system, but if you MUST have a playoff, do a 4-team playoff (aka the plus one format). Start slowly. See if that works before going over the 8 team falls and crashing on the rocks below.

LSU - Ohio State Game Posts

I’ll post the crazy thoughts as they come.

1st Quarter Review

I admit I thought that with the month off, a healthy LSU would run over Ohio State on both sides of the ball. I figured the NFL talent on LSU’s side would overcome the obvious coaching deficit. Obviously I was wrong. LSU looks completely unprepared and their All American Sr. safety looks like a freshman. Bad angles on runs and a complete lack of thought about basic cover two are things that a high school coach teaches. LSU’s only good drive came undone by sloppiness. Finally, when Ohio State overloads to one side and SURPRISE! runs Wells to that side, the Tiger defense hasn’t adjusted yet. It’s like they haven’t seen an unbalanced formation before. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s game plan is basic, and the players are focused on executing. Evidently, Tressel owns all people Michigan, no matter where they go. The talent is clearly there for LSU to overcome Miles & Co., but the preparation starts them in a deep hole….DEEEEEEP.

2nd Quarter

9:05pm Hester is a tank built like a tank made out of tank.

9:17pm And Wells makes Hester look like a cute Yugo.

9:22pm WOW - How quickly it turns. A dropped touchdown and then a blocked field goal by a marauding LSU lineman.

9:26pm - LSU has run Flynn three times for -1 yard each time. Plus he’s a little gimpy. Meanwhile, every other back is going for about 8 or 9 per carry…..proven by Holiday’s amazing run the play after. LSU would be wise to scrap that QB running debacle now.

9:29pm - Yet Balls Miles and company persist with the QB run, this time for about 5 for a change. What do I know? Absolutely PERFECT pass for a TD….a thing of sheer beauty. Ohio State is reeling much like they were against Florida, although the game is nowhere near as bad as it was at this point last year. They are only 7 down due to their fast start and can easily come back. Do you ever get the feeling LSU just stomps when they feel like it and drag when they just don’t feel like putting forth effort? I mean, damn, look at the change in this game.

9:36pm - Shades of 2003 - Holy guided missile killing the quarterback just as he got it off. Meanwhile, the LSU corner turns around just in time to catch the ball like a receiver, then stops and runs 40 yards in 2 seconds the other way. LSU looks like the c in Einstein’s equation right now…..very fast indeed.

9:49pm - LSU is confident in their corners covering the outside….and that is EXTREMELY bad news if you quarterback the opposing team.

Halftime

24-10 LSU. College is such a game of momentum. Just like last year, OSU was fast out of the gates. LSU tied it up. Ohio State then stormed down the field. On third down, a great throw in to the end zone was dropped, a field goal was subsequently blocked, and LSU has been off to the races ever since. OSU must stop LSU from scoring any kind of points when they get the ball in the third quarter to keep this thing respectable. That said, they have moved the ball well, and are still in it, albeit if barely.

3rd Quarter

10:37pm - Another killer with the roughing the kicker….how the frick did he not get the ball???? Anyways, much like the blocked FG earlier, it snowballed quickly. A personal foul by a Buckeye freshman followed, and then Early Doucett broke 14 tackles in the corner and then strolled into the end zone. As he did, I think I actually felt the air coming out of the state of Ohio. 31-10 and the rout looks on.

10:45pm - Ouch. Getting tackled by all four of LSU’s lineman and a blitzing linebacker at the SAME TIME could not feel good. See previous post about LSU having confidence in their corner coverage….Bad Times for Boeckman.

10:50pm - Maybe the Falcons should just draft the entire LSU team.

10:52pm - BIG PLAY on a bad route/throw - Let’s see if OSU can capitalize. They must get 6.

10:54pm - WOW - The nose tackle blew that play up like I’ve never seen on 3rd and an inch….then, GREAT catch for the TD. I thought for sure LSU would hold after that display of Les-ticles on third down, but good throw, amazing catch. OSU says “I’m not dead yet!!”

10:58pm - 31-17 LSU with 1:58 left in the 3rd. Finally Holiday gets a return and it’s good, but not great. They run Flynn like the geniuses they are not for tah-dah… -1 yard!!!!

4th Quarter

11:04pm - OSU has LSU 3rd and long (8 or so) to start….good start if you’re a Buckeye. Critical play here.

11:05pm - And they hold. Fisher booms another punt around Mars’s orbit and back and yet it still lands in the end zone somehow.

11:09pm - OSU is moving again. 3 straight first downs after the big INT and they definitely have the MO. It’s all about the MO.

11:12pm - Great teams can break MO when they really need to. And that’s hard to do because MO is a bad ass. LSU’s defense made two great plays including a sack. Now it’s 4th and 7 and OSU is in an almost must-have situation. They could still win if they don’t get this, but their odds of doing so decrease drastically. HUGE PLAY COMING UP!!!!

11:16pm - Wow. That play kind of sums up the fierceness LSU can summon almost at will this season. If they rest for more than 15 seconds, then the opponent goes booooom and, here comes the REV REV

11:25pm - LSU about to punt. Really, this isn’t nearly the blowout last year was. OSU has had flashes of success. But only flashes. One big play, and the LSU makes a big mistake. Still they have moved the ball at times, and have represented fairly well. That said, LSU has dominated when they wanted to and on the big plays.

11:27pm - Stuffed on 3rd and 1 again…..LSU’s defense, when healthy, truly is a monster.

11:28pm - Looked like another stuff, but Wells found just enough of a crease to slide through for the first….very good run.

11:29pm - Dorsey hammers Boeckman’s right arm for a fumble…good bounce back to Boeckman. LSU is just so much more of a monster than is OSU. Their crucial plays are made. They’re disruptions are bigger. They are just solid.

11:31pm - 3rd and 15 - Yet another interception signals the coming of a night of drunken, orgasmic, drug-induced debauchery for LSU fans. Really no other fans even come close to LSU on this front. The intensity of their team is only surpassed by the intensity of their fans’ partying.

11:39pm - LSU puts a stamp of dominance on the game by a clock-grinding drive down the field. They correctly go for it on 4th down. And then run over the Buckeyes, and finish with a brilliant play call when all Buckeyes were guessing run. Even their 5th string running back blazed through the defense with some oh-so fresh legs.

11:45pm - Fox’s announcer’s go idiot on us. I know…shocker. First they say LSU is “trying to become an elite team” HUH???? How’s about the only team to win two BCS championships guys? Then they say Florida was one of the elite SEC teams over the past 25 years? HUH??? I know Urban is there and all, but they didn’t even win an SEC title until a guy named Spurrier revolutionized the conference. 15 years, yes. 25, no.

11:50pm - 2007 LSU Tigers - Team of destiny. No matter what, they seemed destined to win it this year.

Final LSU 38 - OSU 24.

Brennan still alive….barely

This is getting kind of disturbing watching this game. Jared Zabranski only threw picks when we obliterated Boise State. Colt might not make it out of this game alive. The hit Howard put on him for the touchdown was violence v 2.0. Sick, man.

How to Game the BCS - listen up all you D-1 Coaches!!!!

This is loooonnnng overdue.

The BCS is a system that is created by either humans or space alien scientist studying irrational behavior amongst a subset of humans that are known as “fans”. 2/3 of the system is based on subjective human polls. These polls are the coaches poll, accounting for 1/3 of the BCS, and the Harris poll, made up by a group of panelists accounting for another 1/3 of the BCS. The last 1/3 is made up by 6 computer systems that are written by humans.

So we can understand the BCS’s flaws by understanding flaws of humans. And if we look at the two, we will definitely see trends that jump out at us. Below I discuss some well known biases of the BCS. I do this only to point out what is probably already obvious to many people, but also to shed some light on the system. Once you accept the following “imperfections”, it is much easier to accept the outcome of the BCS because you will see it coming ahead of time.

I’ve listed in order of importance, the five biases below and in two groupings. The first groupings are what I call major biases which strongly affect the polls. The 2nd group, while less important, is still a factor.

1. More Recent Events
2. Better Record/Weaker Schedule
3. Inertia

Less important, but still a factor are the follwing:

4. Personal bias for any number of reasons
5. Imperfect Information/Human laziness (aka Spurrier and UGA 1966 27-10).

Let’s discuss the heaviest hitter first.

More Recent Events
In studying any amount of group participation, it is obvious that more recent events play a larger role in people’s minds. This is well known in the stock market, as a number of “systems” eventually fail in spectacular fashion because they weren’t properly tested over a long enough period of time. In politics, a recent scandal is much more damaging than a 20 year old scandal. It’s “hot news”. This is human nature, and thus the BCS, essentially a human system, is certainly not immune. Let’s take a look at this season and how this manifested itself.

First off, no better example of this is a team that loses early in the season vs. a team that loses late. A team could lose early to Stanford and be vying for a BCS slot against a team that lost the last week of the season to the #6 team, and I guarantee the early loss team gets in. This has happened quite a bit in general in the rankings. I’m still shocked Oklahoma got in the year they lost to Kansas St. because this is in my opinion the strongest noticeable bias. Take Georgia this year. They lost early in the season, then beat several good teams late. As a result, they sat way higher in the polls while everyone around them fell with a loss. Look at West Virginia and USC. USC did play a stronger quality of schedule, but they didn’t suffer nearly as much as West Virginia for losing to a non-quality team (Stanford vs. Pitt). West Virginia, by losing late in the season tumbled sharply in the polls. USC was able to partially recover.

As for quality wins, this bias also exists. The best example in my mind is the 45-0 beating of Virginia Tech by LSU. It is simply the best victory by far of any team this year. Hands down. Not even close. Yet, it is hardly mentioned because it was so long ago. How about California and South Carolina. Wisdom is that they are miserable, and that is correct. They currently are. Yet they were once ranked #2 and #6 this year, beating teams such as Tennessee, Oregon (with Dixon), Georgia, and Kentucky. Any way you slice it, that is impressive. Yet no one gives credit or thinks of them as “two teams” because more weight is given to their recent failures. So a team that defeated either of these early will not get as much credit as they should because of their miserable recent games.

Without a doubt, not playing a quality team on the same weekend as LSU and Oklahoma hurt UGA’s chances this year of getting into the big game.

Better Record/Weaker Schedule
The second very strong bias is the one for a better record. A won-loss record is only one indicator of a team’s strengths. Yet, it is by far the one towards which humans give the most weight. No better example than Hawaii. I’m not saying Hawaii doesn’t deserve a shot. What I am saying is that any of the 10-2 teams have a better “resume” than Hawaii as a measure of success. Kansas and Ohio St. also fall into this camp. Kansas rose all the way to #2 without playing a top 40 team!!!!!! Ohio State has played one top 15 team, and they lost to them. Only two top 25 teams in all. I’m pretty sure most of the other two loss teams would AT LEAST have a record as good as the Buckeyes and many would be 12-0. Meanwhile, no one knows whether Ohio State would be 11-1 or 10-2 with LSU’s schedule…or with Oklahoma’s. I’m fairly confident Hawaii is a 6-6 team in the SEC. Again, an opinion, but one that can largely be justified. Remember, Boise State BARELY beat a very mediocre Oklahoma team and West Virginia, beat a surging UGA team by a field goal in 2005. While they did win, none of these “easier schedule” teams have dominated great opposition the way USC or LSU did against Oklahoma or the way Florida did against a favored Ohio St. The moral of this story is pretty simple: play lesser opponents and you will be rewarded IF you don’t lose. The downside to this is that if you have an equal record as someone else, the pollsters are likely to penalize you for your weak schedule.

Inertia
This bias is the main argument against pre-season polls. It is the one that killed Auburn in 2004. Once a team is #1, they will likely have to lose to get knocked from that spot. This is the case, even if another team has posted more impressive victories over tougher competition. Simply put, people don’t re-analyze their thinking every week. They tend to build on previous polls, and it is really hard to move someone without a significant recent event to cause it to happen. SMQ elimiates this bias completely by his resume ranking method. My hats off to you, sir. But most humans don’t want to put in that level of effort (see #5 bias). As a result, teams may stay entrenched at a level until a dramatic shift causes them to move. This can happen even if a lower team is more deserving than the entrenched team.

Personal bias for any number of reasons
The fact that coaches influence the BCS is really strange. Spurrier consistently votes UGA down because he can never forget or forgive for what UGA did to his undefeated team in 1966. He hates us with a passion. Other people vote for teams in a similar manner, letting personal feelings weigh in more than the facts in front of them. Conference ties play a large part. I’m sure Big 12 coaches probably voted for Oklahoma to play, etc, etc. We could list any number of things here. By and large, these biases will usually be isolated to a single coach or Harris poll panelist, but in a very tight race, it could definitely matter. Computers seek to eliminate this bias, and do so. However, I believe this bias is not nearly as strong as the three above it.

Imperfect Information/Human laziness
One issue I have with polls is the very quick turnaround time given to pollsters. This may be the cause of lazy ballots and lead to inertia because participants don’t have time to properly lay out the polls the way SMQ does with his resume method. To do that method properly takes time. Voters must turn in their ballots very quickly (less than 12 hours it seems) after the games are done. This can definitely lead to mistakes and general sloppiness in trying to add some objectivity to a subjective process.

Conclusions
So what are coaches to do to get their team into a title? I have two suggestions….
1. Play cupcakes in a BCS conference and go undefeated, a la Kansas and Ohio St. If you don’t lose, you’re in. Ohio State’s absolutely dreadful non-conference slate did not keep them out of the big game. But you MUST have a better record than someone else.
OR
2. Play like a man with a real schedule. Besides, you’ll get more respect this way. If this is done, their are several things you can do to tip the odds in your favor…..
– Play MOST the big games earlier in the year. A loss will not be as devastating as one in late November or early December.
– Schedule a doozie for a finale if your sissy conference doesn’t have a championship game.
– Towards the end of the season, DO NOT take it easy on your opponents if only up by two or three scores. While some may have a moral issue with this, if you are blowing teams out 56-7 towards the end of the season, you are much less likely to get left out because of the Big Bias #1. People will look and say “Wow”. Earlier in the season, it’s not as important
– Be political. Before the season begins, try to get all coaches in the conference to rally together against non-conference foes if it comes down to that.

These few things added up can make a difference if you are close with another team and are vying for a slot. For a very short rule of thumb, try to ride early high rankings all the way, and always remember, what have you done lately?

Back up off the BCS’s Nuts

So, in this season it is well known everyone and his mother is saying the BCS is a disaster. I for one feel it got the right 10-2 team into the mix. I personally believe it should be Oklahoma and not Ohio St. playing for it all. But that’s just me. The years it really got it wrong were the choice of Oklahoma over USC and Oklahoma over Auburn. Sorry Sooner fans, but both of those were pretty bad. But I make up for it by saying you guys should be in this year.

The fundamental question is whether or not a playoff should exist. I say no. The regular season Ga-Fla game along with many of the great matchups around the country are so much more vitally important without a playoff. Heck, even Stanford is important for USC….just ask em this year. That is what makes the non-playoff format so much better. People can disagree.

The 2nd point is, if you do agree with me, then do you prefer the old way without the BCS or the current system. I choose the current system. While it is subjective, it is no more so than the old way. Without a playoff (see above), it will be subjective no matter what. At least this way you won’t have an undefeated USC ranked #1 playing Illinois and an undefeated UGA ranked #2 playing Hawaii. It does get two of the best playing for the title. More often than not…probably 75 or 80% of the time, it gets the two correct teams as well. In a nutshell, the BCS is MOSTLY a reflection of human polls. They account for 2/3 of the total anyways.

So the argument is largely about a playoff or not. As said above, this year was maybe the best ever in college football. You there….best season ever or BCS death?……Um, best season please.

Cutliffe to Duke

David Cutliffe is leaving Tennessee to be the head coach of Duke. This is totally awesome for the Dawgs. He basically made Ole Miss competitive and they kicked him out for not going 11-0andbeingtheOMGbestteamevertoputonthepads…and now they’re winless in the SEC. Good job there. Meanwhile, in his absence Georgia destroyed Tennessee every year. Since he’s been back, they’ve hung 51 and a bruising 35 on us in two years. I for one, am glad to see him go. I really think Tennessee is staring into the abyss of mediocrity right now……

BCS Bowlin…

We’re in the Sugar against Hawaii. It’s LSU vs. Ohio State for the title.

The upcoming BCS Selection

By now, it’s pretty clear UGA will probably wind up 4th, behind #2 LSU and #3 Oklahoma. I will be posting a thorough guide to the biases of the BCS system here tomorrow or Tuesday. It will be worthwhile, so check it out. I figured it was down to LSU and UGA for the #2 spot with a 50/50 chance. I really figured the voters wouldn’t jump Oklahoma that much. I’ll be writing on it in detail, but I can’t say I blame them for taking LSU (Oklahoma is a different matter).

What will really hurt is if we wind up playing freakin Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl - a Rose Bowl matchup with USC would be a dream, and would still give us an outside shot at the AP national championship. Forgetting all that it would be a legendary game. Anyways, that may not happen now that the Sugar Bowl is left without LSU…..major bummer.

We’ll be watching like crack-addicted monkeys at 8:00 tonight on fox to see if we’re wrong, which of course, everyone has been all this season. Do the same, and check back tomorrow night or Tuesday for thoughts and the BCS article. Cheers,

Rankings - Week 14

1. Missouri (11-1) 2
2. West Virginia. (10-1) 2
3. LSU (10-2) 2
4. Georgia (10-2) 1
5. USC (9-2) 10
6. Ohio St. (11-1) 1
7. Virginia Tech (10-2) 2
8. Oklahoma(10-2) 2
9. Arizona St. (9-2) 7
10. Florida (9-3) 1
11. Boston College (10-2) 1
12. Illinois (9-3) 1
13. Tennessee (9-3) 3
14. Oregon (8-3) 8
15. Clemson (9-3) 4
16. South Florida (9-3) 4
17. Wisconsin (9-3) 4
18. Kansas(11-1) 10
19. Auburn (8-4) 3
20. Arkansas(8-4) NR
21. Cincinnati (9-3) 2
22. Virginia (9-3) 8
23. Hawaii (12-0) NR
24. Texas (9-3) 7
25. Texas Tech (8-4) 0

I favor quality wins and tougher schedules over good records against patsies.

Kansas - HA!!! - Hawaii - HA!!! - These are not the things champions are made of!!!! USC makes a bold move on top of their most impressive performance of the year. A Rose Bowl between them and UGA would just be heaven. Basically, everyone in the know would figure that would be more for the marbles than the impending BCS championship anyways, since most consider them the two best teams right now. Alas, this is what makes college football absolutely TERRIFIC. NO PLAYOFFS HERE!!!! Looking back, the winner of the Rose Bowl would always laugh at the 2007 BCS champion, much the same way Greece, comfortable with their superiority, would always laugh at a conquering Rome.

Most noticeable is my placing of Ohio State behind LSU, Georgia, and USC, three battle tested teams who fell to a lesser opponent one more time than did Ohio State. I firmly believe Ohio State’s wins are largely on empty calories. Most of the bowl eligible teams they beat got that way by snacking on cupcakes. I have hammered this point that the Big Ten largely didn’t play any quality teams outside their conference at ALL. This is largely due to the down year at Notre Dame. None the less, Ohio State suffers because of that. The pollsters reward them for having a weak schedule. I punish them.

I almost didn’t rank Texas as I have done in the past because they have done almost nothing - I think they beat Texas Tech or something like that. But not much else.

Arkansas jumps in their with an impressive victory.

Let me know what you think.